Your Investment in River Run is Still Solid Compared to The Point and The Peninsula

 

River Run Community

On a recent day showing homes in The Point, I got this bad feeling about the market there.  Granted, the current market in the Charlotte Region will give most anyone a bad feeling right now, but this was a worse feeling.  So the next day I sat down at the office to do some comparisons of the Three Country Club Communities of Lake Norman to see if my hunch was right.  Some of these numbers can be quite frightening if you currently own property in The Point or The Peninsula . . . but if you are currently invested in property in River Run, you should feel relieved.

As of Wednesday, November 12, 2008 these are the current stats on these three commmunities:

The Point: Has a 40 Month Inventory of Homes For Sale which translates in to a 2.5% chance of selling in a given Month and a 26.20% chance of selling within 12 Months.

The Peninsula: Has a 16.8 Month Inventory of Homes For Sale which translates in to a 5.95% chance of selling in a given Month and 52.12% chance of selling within 12 Months.

River Run: Has a 7.41 Month Inventory of Homes For Sale which translates in to a 13.49% chance of selling in a given Month and 82.43% chance of selling within 12 Months.

Obviously Real Estate is an Ever-Changing business so these numbers will change, but a 7.41 Month Inventory is well below the local, state and national averages and says a lot about how Solid of an Investment River Run is in a very dismal economy.

Below are some other numbers on these communities compiled from MLS:

 River Run

Active – 41 Properties Found
	Square Feet	Bedrooms	Full Baths	Half Baths	List Price	Sale Price	Days On Market
Min	1300 – 1700	2	2	0	$ 174,900	$ 0	2
Avg	3500 – 4100	4	3	0	$ 666,105	$ 0	182
Max	6200 – 7300	7	4	2	$ 1,100,000	$ 0	663

Contingent – 1 Properties Found
	Square Feet	Bedrooms	Full Baths	Half Baths	List Price	Sale Price	Days On Market
Min	3000 – 3600	4	3	1	$ 559,000	$ 0	30
Avg	3000 – 3600	4	3	1	$ 559,000	$ 0	30
Max	3000 – 3600	4	3	1	$ 559,000	$ 0	30

The Point

Active – 120 Properties Found
	Square Feet	Bedrooms	Full Baths	Half Baths	List Price	Sale Price	Days On Market
Min	2200 – 2700	3	2	0	$ 376,500	$ 0	4
Avg	4700 – 5500	4	3	1	$ 1,402,936	$ 0	207
Max	8600 – 10200	6	7	4	$ 5,890,000	$ 0	1123

Conditional – 1 Properties Found
	Square Feet	Bedrooms	Full Baths	Half Baths	List Price	Sale Price	Days On Market
Min	5100 – 6000	4	5	1	$ 1,899,900	$ 0	217
Avg	5100 – 6000	4	5	1	$ 1,899,900	$ 0	217
Max	5100 – 6000	4	5	1	$ 1,899,900	$ 0	217

The Peninsula

Active – 70 Properties Found
	Square Feet	Bedrooms	Full Baths	Half Baths	List Price	Sale Price	Days On Market
Min	2000 – 2400	2	2	0	$ 432,000	$ 0	2
Avg	4100 – 4900	4	3	1	$ 1,210,217	$ 0	150
Max	9200 – 10800	6	6	3	$ 4,900,000	$ 0	572

Conditional – 1 Properties Found
	Square Feet	Bedrooms	Full Baths	Half Baths	List Price	Sale Price	Days On Market
Min	6700 – 7900	6	6	3	$ 1,395,000	$ 0	17
Avg	6700 – 7900	6	6	3	$ 1,395,000	$ 0	17
Max	6700 – 7900	6	6	3	$ 1,395,000	$ 0	17

Call Keith for any of your Real Estate Needs at 704-641-8973!  “We Will Sell Your Home or ERA Will Buy It!”

Prices Still Way up in River Run from 2004

 

At the peak in 2007 the average price of homes sold in River Run was $658,000 — a whopping 27% more than the 2004 average price of $518,000.  With the slowdown in the market and the pain in the housing market in other parts of the country, where many of our newcombers are coming from — we are still holding our own with only a 5% dip in the average sales price YTD in 2008.  The average selling price this year is still a very healthy 22% up from 2004 at $634,000.  Hopefully with the election in November, and the government’s participation with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, we will start to see some recovery in the first quarter of 2009!  But we still should be quite happy with our investments still holding strong in River Run.

Written by: Keith Bayless, Realtor, ERA Wilder Realty, Cornelius, NC 

For a Detailed Report on the Value of Your House — Call Keith at 704-892-7373 or 704-641-8973!

More River Run Statistics

 

At Rick Knight’s request I have gathered some more information about Home Sales in River Run Country Club over the last 5 years.  The last group of statistics revealed that prices are still up 22% in 2008 from 2004, down only 5% from the high in 2007. 

The number of houses sold over those years are as follows:

2004 — 82; 2005 — 90; 2006 — 96; 2007 — 61; and YTD 9/16/2008 — 47 with the slowest part of the year ahead of us.  So while prices are holding strong; the number of houses sold has dropped dramatically.  So far this year, there have been an average of 5.5 houses sold per month.  At least 4 sales per month through the end of the year is what we would need to have the same number as 2007.  Currently there are 41 houses on the market in River Run.

In comparison Northstone has had 33 YTD Sold and 45 currently on market — and The Peninsula has had 27 YTD Sold and 72 currently on the market. So River Run still seems to be strong in comparison to other similar neighborhoods.

If you would like to know the probability of selling yout house in Today’s market , give Keith @ ERA Wilder Realty a call at 704-641-8973!

2007 and 2008 Boast more Homes Sold Over $1M in River Run

 

Despite the distress we are hearing from the Financial and Housing Sectors of the US Economy – More homes over $1Million have been sold in River Run in 2007 (3) and 2008 (2YTD) than in 2005 (1) and 2006 (1).  And although as noted in a previous blog, our average sales price has gone down 5% since it’s high in 2007 — 76% of houses being sold in River Run for 2008 YTD are $500,000 – $1M +.  Compared to 2007 when 80% were over $500,000 – $1M +.

Here are the numbers from 2005 to YTD 2008:

2005 — 39 Houses Sold Under $499,999; 50 Houses Sold $500,000 to $999,999 and 1 Sold over $1M

2006 — 37 Houses Sold Under $499,999, 58 Houses Sold $500,000 to $999,999 and 1 Sold over $1M

2007 — 12 Houses Sold Under $499,999, 46 Houses Sold $500,000 to $999,999 and 3 Sold over $1M

2008 – 11 Houses Sold Under $499,999, 34 Houses Sold $500,000 to $999,999 and 2 Sold over $1M*

*YTD

All Data compiled from MLS

For a Free Market Analysis to see what your home is worth in Today’s Market call Keith @ 704-641-8973 ERA Realty where: “We Will Sell Your House or ERA Will Buy It!”

Tough Markets Call for Tough Marketing. . . .

 

In a Perfect World of Real Estate, a house that is priced incorrectly or is not in the best condition can seriously reduce your chance of selling at the price or time frame that you desire! Throw in a financial meltdown and you have to be ready to “Play Ball” if you want to sell.

In order to “Play Ball” in this market you will need the following things:
1) Know your Absorption Rate for Homes in your area and price range
2) Pricing that reflects the above Absorption Rates
3) House must be in a Condition that reflects the Pricing
4) Flexible Terms
5) Patience

If you are not ready to do the things to get your house ready to market or are not willing to not get Top Dollar — then you are not ready to sell and you should sit back and wait for the market to change . . . Which it will! . . . We just don’t know when.

So you ask: “What is an Absorption Rate? and How do I find mine out? and what will it mean?”

Well, the Absorption Rate takes all of the houses sold in your area (neighborhood, town, etc) within 10% plus and minus of your asking price for the last 6 months, then you get the number of houses currently on the market in that same area and 10% range. Then you take the number sold over the last 6 months and divide it by six (ie: 4 houses sold in 6 months = .67 Absorption Rate) Then you take the Current number for Sale and divide that number by the absorption rate (ie: 8 houses for sale divided by .67 = 12) and this figure (12) is the supply of houses on the market in your area and price. So in this example, there is a 12 month supply of inventory at the current market conditions. So if you are patient enough to realize that 12 months on the market might not be unreasonable or if you are willing to put the time and money in to your home to make it in “Move in Condition” and stand out from the others — you are good to go ahead and market your home.

You can even use these figures to find the Probability of selling your home in 1,3,6,9 and 12 months. And the probability figure for month one also tells you the position/condition your house must be in to sell quicker than the competition.

To find out how long it might take to sell your house — give me a call and I will do an in depth analysis of your house! Or if you know of someone who is struggling with whether to put their home on the market, have them give me a call at 704-641-8973!